Pullback day one: As I mentioned on Friday, the 2 to 5 day pullback started today. This pullback should be “news driven” and could retrace the four-day rally but not more. As of today (Monday 2 PM) I don’t see any signals pointing to a complete retracement of the rally.
Pullback day two: Not much to add. The expected move continues with a soft retracement.
The pullback lasted exactly 2 days. With the Dow at 13,374 we still have 150 to 250 points to go up until we see any pullbacks of importance. The next turning point should be at around
13,620 13,570. I will be checking to see what happens then.
The Christmas rally has the door open to run to 14,300, but before running any higher it needs to break above
The Dow broke to the upside 13,570 and it’s teetering around 13,620. If it can hold 13,570 tomorrow without starting to retrace it will be very good news for the bulls. As it is, the Dow has a very big test to pass tomorrow. Traders will be taking positions long and short around these key levels and if the Dow starts moving down it will encourage the bears. If it breaks up it will force the short sellers to cover, which will fuel the rally.
The only regrettable thing about all this is that this move is not based on real growth and a strong economy but on the bailing out of Wall Street by political intervention.
We will not pay this bailout of Wall Street with higher taxes, but with inflation. In the meantime, let’s enjoy the next five years of crazy partying.
Original Post (Friday November 30th)
Two days ago, I wrote Dow Jones 13,252. Not All Clear Yet. I said “the surprise move is non-existent, so this 300 points rally may reverse by Friday. Second, if this move does not continue tomorrow with a close above 13,260, it will reverse by Friday or Monday, and the next move will continue to be down to below 12,500.” Bernanke read the article and yesterday he reinforced the idea that the Fed will cut interest rates (the surprise move). Besides, the Dow never closed below 13,260, which erased the bad vibes for a violent pull back.
Today the Dow is pulling back a little, and this pull back may last between 2 and 8 days, but the window of opportunity for the bears is closing fast. I do not see the Dow going now to 12,500 in a violent fashion. The Short Term Bear Feast I announced in October is coming to an end, and the Christmas rally is approaching. The Fed meeting in December 18 should consolidate the rally.
The Dow gave a technical long-term buy signal yesterday. Normally, after this signal there is a 2 to 8-day pullback. There are a few clouds still on the horizon, and the bears will possibly use this opportunity to cover their position before the Christmas rally.
Have a great weekend.
Remember that these are only mathematical calculations and should not be considered financial advice.
This article is part of the series "Exercise in Market Timing"
- Expect increased volatility
- And we got increased volatility
- Bad News For the Dow (Short Term Bear Fest)
- Dow Jones 400 to 600 more points of pain
- After exiting two weeks the Dow Jones goes nowhere
- Dow Jones at 13,300.02
- Dow Jones at 13,099 should see a rest
- Dow Jones Finds A Convoluted Way to Do Nothing
- Dow Jones Ready for Next Leg Down
- Dow Jones 13,252. Not All Clear Yet
- Dow Jones: Announced 2-day Pullback Over
- Timing The October High And November Bottom Of Dow Jones
Franklin @ December 5, 2007