2 Comments

  1. Jane.W January 2, 2011 @ 11:31 am

    Thanks for sharing guys…cool stuff indeed..keep going like this

  2. Wendy November 14, 2015 @ 10:45 am

    These numbers aren’t supirrsing at all, if you take into account that what we are actually experiencing is a rearrangement of resources from the bubble industries, to others. The people who worked in housing and construction and the industries that serviced them are not going to be as flexible as capital, so its expected that money would have rearranged itself a lot quicker than labor. Its very expected that there will be a lag period between the two…and its expected that some of those people are going to have a hard time realigning. Looking at broad aggregate measures isn’t going to explain much to us. Looking at where hiring has gone up over the past few years, who is unemployed etc…will give us a better idea. (and we’ve seen those numbers before; high-tech and knowledge based is still going up…and the chronically unemployed are those who services the bubble industries of a few years ago. No surprise)The biggest danger in this, is that it gives ammunition to Leftist politicians to push for greater welfare states, ala Europe. Europe’s dynamics are very similar to this…large masses of unemployable people who relied on now dead industries, and never managed to realign themselves due to a massive welfare state which incentivised non-work.

And yet the data shows a fast recovery

Economics, Economy, Finance, Thoughts Comments (2)

This is an update to a post published almost two years ago: Some Historical Perspective on the Current Recession.Back then I analyzed data until the third quarter of 2008. The data showed that we weren’t in a depression yet, and that Up to the 3rd quarter of 2008, the economic recession was shallower than the 2001 recession.

The revised data for the same period shows that in the 4th quarter of 2007 we were in a shallow depression that double dipped in the 2nd quarter of 2008 to bottom in the 4th quarter.

Make no mistakes, from the point of view of American corporations we hit a depression, a situation in which the undistributed corporate profits as percentage of GDP are negative which we had not seen since 1929.

Recovery underway 2010

Undistributed corporate profits as percentage of GDP

We exited the situation with a sharp V shaped recovery, and American corporations went into positive territory in the 2nd quarter of 2009 . There is a lot that still needs to be done, and in job front the recovery is not being reflected, that’s going to take time, and many types of jobs will not come back in the same numbers than before the depression.

In 2007, I wrote that we were in a recession, and the Republican pundits criticized my assertion based on the methodology of the analysis. Today, they will say that we are not in a recovery, and they will be wrong once again.

If you don’t care much about checking the previous posts, let me show you that the speed of this recovery blows away the recovery from the 2002 recession.

The stimulus packages have worked, they removed us from a depression on a steep v shaped recovery, the economy is coming back in full swing, and next year we will start seeing the effects on the areas were count: jobs and improved quality of life.

Franklin @ December 31, 2010

Leave a comment

XHTML: You can use these tags: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

Entries (RSS)
Comments (RSS)

70 queries.
0.788 seconds.

Politics blogs Politics blogs
Links to Site
%d bloggers like this: