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The Case for Gold as the Next Bubble Instrument (and How to Play it Safe)

Franklin @ January 11, 2008 # 10 Comments

I wrote before that gold is a a poor inflation hedge. The myth has its origins in a big run up in the 80s that had as much to do with wild speculators cornering the precious metals markets as with a knee-jerk reaction to two continuous years of double digit inflation rates. With gold hitting […]

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Is Gold the Object of the Next Bubble?

Franklin @ January 10, 2008 # 3 Comments

Today they started talking about recession, are we in? Are we going to be in? The problem with traditional economists is that they use models that are grossly outdated. My readers know we are in recession since the fourth quarter of 2006 (at best, the 2nd quarter of 2007). The problem right now? None. We […]

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Great Projects for 2008

Franklin @ January 10, 2008 # No Comment Yet

Thinking on starting a new venture this year. It should be related to financial analysis. Hopping to get the right kind of people on board. I will be sharing more soon, but one of the aspects is creating a Web service to allow for easy analysis of 401k and IRA accounts to minimize risks and […]

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Holidays are over!

Franklin @ January 10, 2008 # No Comment Yet

The yearly grinding from Thanksgiving to New Year is over. Now we can start doing important stuff again. It’s not that I think that meeting with family is not important stuff, it is that the regiment of three months of forced march is starting to get too much for me. Mother in-law was here since […]

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Apple’s IPhone, Macintosh Push Shares to Record High

Franklin @ December 28, 2007 # No Comment Yet

There’s so much growth to look forward to for the iPhone,” said Stephen Coleman, chief investment officer at St. Louis-based Daedalus Capital LLC, which owns about $7 million of Apple shares. He projects the stock will hit $600 in 18 months. And so it begins. The mad rush to parabolic rises in the stock market. […]

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Housing Market Bottom?

Franklin @ December 28, 2007 # 2 Comments

The amount of negative publicity If you are a buyer and you have access to feed news to the media, you want them to picture a bleaker picture than it is. From this point of view alone, this looks a lot like stock market bottoms, when you ONLY read negative information. Although the market is […]

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Black Swans, Bell Curves and Stagflation

Franklin @ December 19, 2007 # 2 Comments

This is not the promised article about the stupidity of black swans. This is an article about how we tend to focus our attention on the odd, rather than the mundane. I guess some talking head mentioned stagflation, because the previous article on the subject received unusual attention. People are hitting the site searching for […]

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Timing The October High And November Bottom Of Dow Jones

Franklin @ December 9, 2007 # 2 Comments

Over the past two months (actually beginning October 1st) I conducted a documented experiment on this site. Although Reuters and other media republished some of the articles, my impression is that this exercise in market timing went completely unnoticed.

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How Your 401k And IRA Rob You

Franklin @ December 8, 2007 # No Comment Yet

“Don’t worry about a thing;” said my doctor, “I have an excellent risk management program for your health.”

“Great, that sounds great,” I said, “I like avoiding risk. What are the risks you see in the management of my health?”

“Well, you know, the functioning of the human body is a mystery, it is random. So the most important thing is to medicate you for different possible diseases and go around changing the medication as I see you evolve.”

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The Rags To Riches Trap

Franklin @ December 7, 2007 # 2 Comments

We are impressionable animals. Our biology evolved to help us pay attention to the unusual in the pattern.

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