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Black Swans, Bell Curves and Stagflation

Franklin @ December 19, 2007 # 2 Comments

This is not the promised article about the stupidity of black swans. This is an article about how we tend to focus our attention on the odd, rather than the mundane. I guess some talking head mentioned stagflation, because the previous article on the subject received unusual attention. People are hitting the site searching for […]

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The Rags To Riches Trap

Franklin @ December 7, 2007 # One Comment

We are impressionable animals. Our biology evolved to help us pay attention to the unusual in the pattern.

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Is Gold a Hedge Against Excess Liquidity?

Franklin @ December 5, 2007 # 2 Comments

Dispelling myths about the golden metal

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The Myth Of Gold as Inflation Hedge

Franklin @ December 2, 2007 # 23 Comments

Gold sellers like to write long articles and develop interesting theories to provide rational justification for their business.

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Stagflation: This Time It Is Different

Franklin @ November 18, 2007 # 4 Comments

I just uttered two of the worst things any economist would ever want to see. And they are together, for good measure.

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The Real Economy II

Franklin @ November 7, 2007 # 4 Comments

In the previous article (The Real Economy) I showed that the purchasing power of the Dow Jones, when it is compared against commodities instead of against "imaginary" dollars, has decreased by about 50% since they year 2000. In this article, I will play with the assumption that the US dollar is still backed up by […]

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The real economy

Franklin @ October 8, 2007 # 31 Comments

I wrote previously that, in constant dollars, the Dow Jones is far from a new high (actually, some 8% away). Those constant dollars, however, were based only on inflation data, which is statistical data and not actual market data. The following table shows the 2000 and 2007 prices in terms of different commodities. The calculation […]

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Is the Dow Jones at a new high?

Franklin @ October 8, 2007 # 13 Comments

Two weeks ago I mentioned that current currencies have no inherent value, and I gave the dramatic example of the Argentine currency from the 70s to date. Today, I will comment on the myth of the new high for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is portrayed as an example of the economic health of […]

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Expect increased volatility

Franklin @ October 1, 2007 # 7 Comments

On August 20th, when the concern on the media was the liquidity crisis and the falling market I wrote to a good friend of mine “The move on the DIA since the bottom of 2002 looks parabolic. If we break the previous high we will be “on the other side of the curve” when things […]

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I have $ 100,000,000,000 and yet I can’t retire

Franklin @ September 29, 2007 # 12 Comments

The past week you certainly have (and in the next few weeks you will) read a lot about the dollar and its relation to other currencies. Most of the articles fail to explain what the real value of money is. In some cases, I think, economists just ignore out of convenience what the impact of […]

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