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The Gold Scam

Franklin @ April 20, 2008 # 18 Comments

Every time there is an article about gold warning about a possible bubble, a cohort of gold worshipers (an activity which, by the way, is frowned upon by the Old Testament God) answer that gold has maintained its value for 3,000 years, or 5,000 years, and so on. They will give you impressive and unsubstantiated […]

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A Streetcar Named Wishful Economic Thinking

Franklin @ April 15, 2008 # 12 Comments

We are broke. We may have a couple more months of sustained living if the Fed keeps injecting liquidity into the system, but to all intents and purposes, America is broke. For the past 50 years we have been sustaining low unemployment rates (albeit not as low as the official figures show), based on a […]

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Why Current Inflation Hurts So Much?

Franklin @ February 14, 2008 # 7 Comments

The other day I wrote at www.tradingurus.com that the current inflation rate is historically low. That article was geared towards investors, and pointed out that the current administration has a lot more room to give money away to avert the current financial crisis. By the way, the idea behind www.tradingurus.com is that since American workers […]

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The Case for Gold as the Next Bubble Instrument (and How to Play it Safe)

Franklin @ January 11, 2008 # 10 Comments

I wrote before that gold is a a poor inflation hedge. The myth has its origins in a big run up in the 80s that had as much to do with wild speculators cornering the precious metals markets as with a knee-jerk reaction to two continuous years of double digit inflation rates. With gold hitting […]

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Is Gold the Object of the Next Bubble?

Franklin @ January 10, 2008 # 3 Comments

Today they started talking about recession, are we in? Are we going to be in? The problem with traditional economists is that they use models that are grossly outdated. My readers know we are in recession since the fourth quarter of 2006 (at best, the 2nd quarter of 2007). The problem right now? None. We […]

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Housing Market Bottom?

Franklin @ December 28, 2007 # 2 Comments

The amount of negative publicity If you are a buyer and you have access to feed news to the media, you want them to picture a bleaker picture than it is. From this point of view alone, this looks a lot like stock market bottoms, when you ONLY read negative information. Although the market is […]

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Black Swans, Bell Curves and Stagflation

Franklin @ December 19, 2007 # 2 Comments

This is not the promised article about the stupidity of black swans. This is an article about how we tend to focus our attention on the odd, rather than the mundane. I guess some talking head mentioned stagflation, because the previous article on the subject received unusual attention. People are hitting the site searching for […]

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Things That Go Bump in the Night

Franklin @ December 15, 2007 # 2 Comments

Today I am republishing John Mauldin’s Weekly Newsletter. If you find it interesting you will find subscription information at the bottom of the post. John Mauldin, who for years has been involved in private money management and alternative investments, is a much sought after financial strategist and consultant. He’s the author of Bull’s Eye Investing: Targeting Real Returns in a Smoke and Mirrors Market, Just One Thing: Twelve of the World’s Best Investors Reveal the One Strategy You Can’t Overlook, and The Millennium Wave: Prosper (& Profit!) in a Future of Accelerating Change (which I haven’t read yet).

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Disposable Personal Income Shows Disturbing Historical Trend

Franklin @ December 13, 2007 # 7 Comments

An observation of a disturbing trend on disposable personal income. Some possible causes and more questions.

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Timing The October High And November Bottom Of Dow Jones

Franklin @ December 9, 2007 # 2 Comments

Over the past two months (actually beginning October 1st) I conducted a documented experiment on this site. Although Reuters and other media republished some of the articles, my impression is that this exercise in market timing went completely unnoticed.

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