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Retailers post disappointing November sales – MarketWatch

Franklin @ December 6, 2007 # No Comment Yet

On November 15 I wrote regarding the November retail numbers: If the news is bad, the Fed will feel justified in declaring that the risk of a recession is higher than the risk of inflation, and lower the rates a little bit more. Either way, at this , the end will be the same. There […]

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Dow Jones: Announced 2-day Pullback Over

Franklin @ December 5, 2007 # 2 Comments

Monday Update Pullback day one: As I mentioned on Friday, the 2 to 5 day pullback started today. This pullback should be “news driven” and could retrace the four-day rally but not more. As of today (Monday 2 PM) I don’t see any signals pointing to a complete retracement of the rally. Tuesday Update Pullback […]

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Is Gold a Hedge Against Excess Liquidity?

Franklin @ December 5, 2007 # 2 Comments

Dispelling myths about the golden metal

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The Myth Of Gold as Inflation Hedge

Franklin @ December 2, 2007 # 23 Comments

Gold sellers like to write long articles and develop interesting theories to provide rational justification for their business.

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Dow Jones Ready for Next Leg Down

Franklin @ November 23, 2007 # 3 Comments

Two weeks ago, when the Dow had fallen about 1000 points, I said that the Dow Jones at 13,099 should see a rest. I expected at least two flat weeks and we had them within less than 1%. As I write this the Dow is at 12,930.24 (0.98% lower than the 13,099 I detected as […]

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Stagflation: This Time It Is Different

Franklin @ November 18, 2007 # 4 Comments

I just uttered two of the worst things any economist would ever want to see. And they are together, for good measure.

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Dow Jones Finds A Convoluted Way to Do Nothing

Franklin @ November 15, 2007 # One Comment

Last Friday I wrote that the Dow Jones at 13,099 should see a rest. I pointed out that some statistical barriers had been broken, and that the fall should stop around there. I was wrong by 0.6%, but not much more. And then, on Tuesday, we had this huge run rally of some 300 points. […]

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Dow Jones at 13,099 should see a rest

Franklin @ November 9, 2007 # 2 Comments

Yesterday’s fall broke statistical boundaries and the DJ rallied. Today’s fall created a new statistical boundary and broke it. Next week we should see a week of basically flat movement. The next down move should be to around 12.500. I still think this is a short term move, and that the Fed will inject more […]

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The Real Economy II

Franklin @ November 7, 2007 # 4 Comments

In the previous article (The Real Economy) I showed that the purchasing power of the Dow Jones, when it is compared against commodities instead of against "imaginary" dollars, has decreased by about 50% since they year 2000. In this article, I will play with the assumption that the US dollar is still backed up by […]

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Dow Jones at 13,300.02

Franklin @ November 7, 2007 # 2 Comments

In October 22nd we said that the DJ was in for 400 to 600 more points of pain. Since then the Dow Jones went up a little and down a little, a lot of nothing happened until today. I still expect the Dow to go down to around 12,600 with a lot of noise and […]

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