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A Streetcar Named Wishful Economic Thinking

Franklin @ April 15, 2008 # 12 Comments

We are broke. We may have a couple more months of sustained living if the Fed keeps injecting liquidity into the system, but to all intents and purposes, America is broke. For the past 50 years we have been sustaining low unemployment rates (albeit not as low as the official figures show), based on a […]

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Black Swans, Bell Curves and Stagflation

Franklin @ December 19, 2007 # 2 Comments

This is not the promised article about the stupidity of black swans. This is an article about how we tend to focus our attention on the odd, rather than the mundane. I guess some talking head mentioned stagflation, because the previous article on the subject received unusual attention. People are hitting the site searching for […]

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The Rags To Riches Trap

Franklin @ December 7, 2007 # 2 Comments

We are impressionable animals. Our biology evolved to help us pay attention to the unusual in the pattern.

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Is Gold a Hedge Against Excess Liquidity?

Franklin @ December 5, 2007 # 2 Comments

Dispelling myths about the golden metal

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Stagflation: This Time It Is Different

Franklin @ November 18, 2007 # 4 Comments

I just uttered two of the worst things any economist would ever want to see. And they are together, for good measure.

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CNN.com agrees with TheBankruptcyNews

Franklin @ November 8, 2007 # No Comment Yet

In clear evidence that there is a liberal media conspiracy against President Bush, CNN moved in to confirm with a poll that the American people are starting to feel the pain of the failed economic policies. The following article would prove that My blog is part of the liberal media (swear I did not know) […]

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Dow Jones at 13,300.02

Franklin @ November 7, 2007 # 2 Comments

In October 22nd we said that the DJ was in for 400 to 600 more points of pain. Since then the Dow Jones went up a little and down a little, a lot of nothing happened until today. I still expect the Dow to go down to around 12,600 with a lot of noise and […]

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Economics and thermodynamics

Franklin @ October 16, 2007 # 3 Comments

Doing a perfunctory search on google about Economics and Thermodynamics I found a bunch of articles about the second and third laws of thermodynamics as they apply to economics. Don’t worry, I will not talk about chaos or entropy, I will talk about the first law of thermodynamics: “The increase in the internal energy of […]

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The real economy

Franklin @ October 8, 2007 # 31 Comments

I wrote previously that, in constant dollars, the Dow Jones is far from a new high (actually, some 8% away). Those constant dollars, however, were based only on inflation data, which is statistical data and not actual market data. The following table shows the 2000 and 2007 prices in terms of different commodities. The calculation […]

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Expect increased volatility

Franklin @ October 1, 2007 # 7 Comments

On August 20th, when the concern on the media was the liquidity crisis and the falling market I wrote to a good friend of mine “The move on the DIA since the bottom of 2002 looks parabolic. If we break the previous high we will be “on the other side of the curve” when things […]

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