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Why fundamental analysis of commodities is wrong, and irrational

Franklin @ July 30, 2008 # 3 Comments

I have discussed in several articles my position that gold is just another commodity subject to the ebb and flow of speculative money. Today I will talk a little bit about oil and why I think all the fundamental analysis are fundamentally wrong. If I write that we are experiencing peak oil price rather than […]

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A Streetcar Named Wishful Economic Thinking

Franklin @ April 15, 2008 # 12 Comments

We are broke. We may have a couple more months of sustained living if the Fed keeps injecting liquidity into the system, but to all intents and purposes, America is broke. For the past 50 years we have been sustaining low unemployment rates (albeit not as low as the official figures show), based on a […]

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You Are Not Going to Be Rich

Franklin @ March 7, 2008 # 15 Comments

I am kind of fed up with the “we want you to be rich” stuff that’s going around (yes, I am talking about the barrage of programs and books from The Secret to the latest Trump publishing endeavor). I think that that is the kind of propaganda that keeps illusions alive, and while we live […]

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The Case for Gold as the Next Bubble Instrument (and How to Play it Safe)

Franklin @ January 11, 2008 # 10 Comments

I wrote before that gold is a a poor inflation hedge. The myth has its origins in a big run up in the 80s that had as much to do with wild speculators cornering the precious metals markets as with a knee-jerk reaction to two continuous years of double digit inflation rates. With gold hitting […]

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Is Gold the Object of the Next Bubble?

Franklin @ January 10, 2008 # 3 Comments

Today they started talking about recession, are we in? Are we going to be in? The problem with traditional economists is that they use models that are grossly outdated. My readers know we are in recession since the fourth quarter of 2006 (at best, the 2nd quarter of 2007). The problem right now? None. We […]

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Housing Market Bottom?

Franklin @ December 28, 2007 # 2 Comments

The amount of negative publicity If you are a buyer and you have access to feed news to the media, you want them to picture a bleaker picture than it is. From this point of view alone, this looks a lot like stock market bottoms, when you ONLY read negative information. Although the market is […]

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Black Swans, Bell Curves and Stagflation

Franklin @ December 19, 2007 # 2 Comments

This is not the promised article about the stupidity of black swans. This is an article about how we tend to focus our attention on the odd, rather than the mundane. I guess some talking head mentioned stagflation, because the previous article on the subject received unusual attention. People are hitting the site searching for […]

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The Rags To Riches Trap

Franklin @ December 7, 2007 # 2 Comments

We are impressionable animals. Our biology evolved to help us pay attention to the unusual in the pattern.

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Retailers post disappointing November sales – MarketWatch

Franklin @ December 6, 2007 # No Comment Yet

On November 15 I wrote regarding the November retail numbers: If the news is bad, the Fed will feel justified in declaring that the risk of a recession is higher than the risk of inflation, and lower the rates a little bit more. Either way, at this , the end will be the same. There […]

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Subprime Mortgage Crisis Spreading to High-End Housing Market

Franklin @ August 29, 2007 # No Comment Yet

For those who have not been following my reasoning on this matter here is an introduction: Since the 90s banks get liquidity for providing loans by packaging the loans into securities and selling those securities to 3rd parties (real estate is not real any longer from the point of view of the banks) As the […]

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